A recent anthropological analysis explains how Neanderthals spread from Eastern Europe to the vast regions of Central and Eastern Eurasia between 120,000 and 60,000 years ago. The scarcity of archaeological sites linking both areas had kept the details of this migration in the dark, but now, through computer simulations, a team of researchers has reconstructed the possible routes these hominins followed along river valleys and waterways during periods of warmer climate.

The study, published in the journal PLOS One, was led by Emily Coco, who began the research as a PhD student at New York University (NYU) and currently works as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Algarve (Portugal), in collaboration with Radu Iovita, an associate professor at NYU’s Center for the Study of Human Origins. According to their findings, the Neanderthals may have traveled approximately 3,250 kilometers in less than 2,000 years, overcoming geographic obstacles like mountains and large rivers thanks to a combination of favorable environmental conditions and a movement strategy based on natural corridors.

These results show that, despite physical barriers, Neanderthals were able to cross northern Eurasia with surprising speed, explains Coco. They also provide crucial information about ancient migrations that cannot be studied through the archaeological record alone and show how computer simulations can reveal previously unknown clues about the movements that shaped human history.

To recreate this movement, the researchers developed a model that integrates variables such as terrain elevation, the reconstruction of ancient rivers, glacial barriers, and temperature fluctuations, in order to simulate Neanderthal movement decisions. This methodology, previously used to study modern human and animal migrations, had never before been systematically applied to an extinct species.

neanderthals eurasia migration denisovans
Computer simulated paths of Neanderthal dispersals demonstrate they could have reached the Altai Mountains in Siberia within 2,000 years during warm climatic conditions in one of two ancient time periods—MIS 5e (approximately 125,000 years ago) or MIS 3 (approximately 60,000 years ago)—as demonstrated by the three different possible paths shown here. These paths follow a northern route through the Ural Mountains and southern Siberia, often intersecting with known archaeological sites from the same time periods. Credit: Emily Coco and Radu Iovita

The simulations, run on the NYU Greene supercomputer, identified two key climate windows that facilitated the migration: Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e, around 125,000 years ago) and Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, around 60,000 years ago), both characterized by milder temperatures that would have made the journey less hostile. During these periods, the Neanderthals could have reached the Altai Mountains in Siberia within a span of two millennia, following multiple but converging routes that crossed the Urals and southern Siberia.

According to the authors, the most interesting aspect is that these simulated paths match several already documented and excavated Neanderthal archaeological sites, reinforcing the validity of the model. Moreover, the study offers a plausible explanation to another mystery: the interactions between Neanderthals and Denisovans, the other archaic human species that inhabited Asia. The identified routes led migrants directly to territories occupied by these hominins, which aligns with genetic evidence of interbreeding between the two groups.

An “Almost Inevitable” Journey

Neanderthals could have traveled thousands of kilometers from the Caucasus to Siberia in just 2,000 years if they followed river corridors, notes Iovita. Although some geneticists had already speculated about the possibility of rapid, long-distance migrations, there was a lack of solid archaeological evidence in the region. Our simulations suggest that this movement was almost inevitable given the landscape conditions during past warm periods.

The study resolves part of the puzzle surrounding Neanderthal expansion and underscores the role of environmental factors in major prehistoric migrations. Rivers, in particular, were vital axes guiding these groups across a hostile continent, while intervals of favorable climate acted as catalysts for movement.

Still, questions remain unanswered, such as what exactly drove these groups to undertake such an extensive journey—was it demographic pressure, changes in resource availability, or simply curiosity to explore new territories? The researchers acknowledge that, although the simulation provides a plausible framework, the ultimate driver of the migration remains a subject of debate.

SOURCES

New York University

Emily Coco, Radu Iovita. Agent-based simulations reveal the possibility of multiple rapid northern routes for the second Neanderthal dispersal from Western to Eastern Eurasia. PLOS One, 2025; 20 (6): e0325693 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0325693

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