A new study led by a team of scientists from the University of Leeds has revealed that the cold conditions that have allowed the formation of polar ice caps on Earth are exceptional events in the planet’s history and depend on a complex combination of processes that must occur simultaneously. This research, published in the journal Science Advances, highlights that the current climatic situation of the planet, characterized by the presence of vast ice sheets at the poles, is an unusual circumstance brought about by a series of geological and climatic coincidences.
Since its formation approximately 4.5 billion years ago, Earth has spent most of its existence in a state known as a “greenhouse,” in which temperatures were significantly warmer and permanent ice caps did not exist. The researchers set out to answer why Earth has experienced these rare cold periods and how these exceptional glaciation phases have occurred.
Throughout history, various hypotheses have been proposed to explain Earth’s glacial periods, including a decrease in CO2 emissions from volcanoes, an increase in carbon storage due to forest expansion, and the reaction of CO2 with certain types of rocks. However, until now, no theory had been able to provide a complete and unified explanation for the occurrence of these events.
To address this question, scientists used a three-dimensional model of Earth’s evolution developed at the University of Leeds, which allows for the simultaneous evaluation of multiple climatic and geological factors. This innovative “Earth Evolution” model has been made possible thanks to recent advances in computing, enabling researchers to simulate the interaction of different processes and assess their combined impact on the planet’s global temperature.
The results revealed that no single mechanism is sufficient to induce an ice age; rather, it is the simultaneous combination of multiple processes that has allowed these exceptional events to occur. Among the key factors identified are reduced global volcanic activity and the geographical configuration of the continents, which, when highly dispersed and featuring large mountain ranges, promote abundant precipitation and chemical reactions that remove carbon from the atmosphere.
The study has significant implications for the scientific debate on Earth’s natural climate regulation, as it suggests that the predominant trend throughout the planet’s geological history has been toward a warmer world, with high CO2 levels and no permanent ice sheets.
Dr. Andrew Merdith, the study’s lead author, explained that the findings help us understand why glacial states are such infrequent events in Earth’s history. We now know that we live on a planet with ice caps thanks to a fortuitous combination of climatic and geological conditions. Without these specific circumstances, Earth would be a much warmer, ice-free place, he noted.
Meanwhile, Professor Benjamin Mills, the project’s supervisor and an expert in Earth system evolution at the University of Leeds, emphasized that these findings have crucial implications for the current climate crisis. We cannot assume that Earth will naturally return to a cold state if we continue raising temperatures before reducing greenhouse gas emissions, he warned. The planet has shown a historical preference for warm climates, but our society is not adapted to such conditions. We must do everything possible to preserve Earth’s current glacial state.
This study reaffirms the urgency of taking effective measures against global warming, as the conditions that allow the existence of ice caps and the climatic balance on which modern civilization relies are, according to experts, a rarity in the planet’s long history. Preserving this fragile balance is essential for the future of humanity.
SOURCES
Andrew S. Merdith et al., Phanerozoic icehouse climates as the result of multiple solid-Earth cooling mechanisms. Sci. Adv. 11, eadm9798 (2025). DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adm9798
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