Climate change has played a crucial role in shaping societies throughout history. Recently, a study led by Chinese researchers has shown how these climatic changes may have significantly influenced the fall of the Ming Dynasty, one of the most prominent and long-lasting in China’s history. The findings suggest that the collapse of this dynasty, usually attributed to socioeconomic and political causes, may have been hastened by a large-scale drought known as the Wanli Megadrought, which may have affected China decades earlier than previously thought.
Traditionally, studies on the decline of the Ming Dynasty have focused on the “Chongzhen drought,” which occurred during the dynasty’s last phase and is considered a key factor in its weakening and eventual fall. However, recent analysis by a team from the Institute of Earth Environment (IEE), part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, indicates that an earlier drought—the Wanli Megadrought—may have played an even earlier destabilizing role in the dynasty’s downfall. This adverse climate event, occurring between 1585 and 1590, is notable for its duration and severity, similar in many respects to the Chongzhen drought, though it has seldom been mentioned in prior historical studies.
One of the major challenges in analyzing historical climate events lies in data accuracy and resolution. Previously, this limitation hindered the study of the intrinsic relationship between climate change and the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. To tackle this challenge, the team of Chinese researchers employed an innovative methodology based on the historical reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period from July to September. Using stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) obtained from tree growth rings in the Loess Plateau in southwestern China, they were able to track climate variations from 1556 to 2015.
One of the most relevant findings of this research was the identification of a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 and 1661, a period that coincides with the historical phase known as the “Late Ming Dynasty Weak Monsoon Period” (1580–1660). This weakening of the monsoon not only reflects a shift in precipitation patterns in China but also impacted agricultural capacity and, consequently, the region’s economic and social development. During this time, the lack of rainfall deeply affected food production, which may have contributed to a climate of food insecurity and social discontent that could have weakened the dynasty’s power structures.
Another interesting aspect of this study is the observation of a trend toward humidification in northwestern China starting in the 2000s, in line with a broader pattern of warming and wetter climate in that region. This change contrasts with the arid and dry climate conditions observed during the Ming Dynasty, highlighting the dynamic nature of climate in the Asian region and its potential impact on human history.
In addition to the Wanli and Chongzhen droughts, the researchers noted that global climate phenomena, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may have influenced the intensity of the Asian monsoon and, therefore, drought conditions in China. This global factor, which affects climate patterns across many regions, could have exacerbated local droughts, further undermining the dynasty’s economic stability.
The study, published in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, not only provides a renewed perspective on the climate factors behind the fall of the Ming Dynasty but also prompts reflections on the possible impacts that current climate change might have on modern societies. Understanding the interaction between climate change and the development of civilizations through these historical records offers valuable lessons for facing today’s challenges.
SOURCES
Academia China de las Ciencias
Meng Ren, Yu Liu, et al., The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O over the past 460 years. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, vol. 655. 1 December 2024, 112548. doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112548
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