A recent study published in the journal Klio by researchers Haggai Olshanetsky, from the University of Warsaw, and Lev Cosijns, from the University of Oxford, analyzes the true causes of the decline of the Eastern Roman Empire. Traditionally, it has been believed that natural factors, such as the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) and the Plague of Justinian, played a crucial role in weakening the empire during the 6th century AD. However, this new research challenges this view, arguing that the empire may have experienced a population boom during this same period.

Olshanetsky and Cosijns’ article carefully reviews available archaeological evidence, using data from settlements, shipwrecks, and trade patterns in the Mediterranean. Based on this analysis, the researchers suggest that neither climate change nor the plague would have caused a collapse in the 6th century, as some historians have proposed. Instead, they argue that the causes of decline may be more related to human and military factors, especially in the 7th century, when the empire faced Persian invasions and Islamic expansion.

Why do empires fall? This is a question that fascinates many, both in academia and among the general public, the researchers note. In seeking an answer, emotions run high, and imagination can soar. Human intervention, especially in the form of war, is often attributed to the decline of empires. Until about 40 years ago, historical research was oriented toward this line of thinking. However, in recent decades, new suggestions have emerged that attribute the rise and fall of empires to climate and disease.

Byzantine Empire Justinian
Expansion of the Byzantine Empire (Eastern Roman Empire) in the time of Justinian. Credit: Universidad Autónoma de Madrid / Wikimedia Commons

Many of these suggestions focused on the decline of the Roman Empire, with Kyle Harper’s work being the most infamous of all. Some believe that the Roman-Persian War of 602–628 AD, including the 14 years of conquest of Judea/Palestine (modern Israel and the West Bank) and Egypt, and the Islamic conquest after the Battle of Yarmouk in 636 AD, should not be considered the sole causes of the Eastern Roman Empire’s decline. According to this interpretation, the climate cooling during the LALIA (536–660 AD) and the devastating Plague of Justinian (541 AD) would have drastically reduced the population, affecting agriculture and trade and weakening the empire’s structure.

Olshanetsky and Cosijns question this interpretation, highlighting that the archaeological evidence used to support these theories is limited and often partial. According to their findings, numerous studies on settlements and trade patterns in the Mediterranean suggest continuity in the 6th century and even a possible expansion. This new approach relies on macro and micro data: on one hand, they analyze Mediterranean trade through shipwrecks, and on the other, they examine specific archaeological sites, such as the city of Elusa in the Negev Desert and Scythopolis in Judea/Palestine.

The research demonstrates that there was not only a lack of population or economic collapse, but commercial and agricultural activity could have been maintained and even increased in the eastern Mediterranean region during the 6th century. Previous studies, the researchers point out, relied on a selection of ancient textual sources that did not adequately reflect the variety and amount of available archaeological evidence.

Eastern Roman Empire
A distribution map of LRA 4 amphorae (in red, top) and LRA 5 amphorae (in blue, bottom). Credit: H. Olshanetsky, L. Cosijns

Regarding the impact of climate change, the study indicates that the cooling of the LALIA may have been much less severe in the regions of the Eastern Roman Empire. Although it is estimated that in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the average annual temperature dropped by as much as 1.6°C, the effects in more southern regions, such as Egypt and Judea, would have been much milder, with a decrease of only about 0.25°C. The authors also emphasize that, according to ancient sources, the climate effects related to volcanic dust in 536 AD were limited and short-lived outside of Europe.

One of the study’s most notable aspects is the questioning of the impact of the Plague of Justinian, often considered one of the deadliest pandemics in ancient history. According to Olshanetsky and Cosijns, archaeological evidence does not support a catastrophic population collapse in the empire due to the plague. They argue that some researchers have exaggerated the impact and that there is no solid evidence that the plague caused a massive depopulation or an irreversible economic crisis.

For the authors, many of the records of “outbreaks” of the Plague of Justinian in the following two centuries might not be severe recurrences of the disease but rather minor outbreaks or other illnesses. Additionally, recent studies on the genetics of the plague suggest that it may have arrived in Europe earlier than previously thought, possibly coexisting with the population without causing a population crisis.

Expansion Islam
The spread of Islam at the time of Muhammad. Credit: Javierfv1212 / Wikimedia Commons

One of the cases studied in depth by Olshanetsky and Cosijns is that of Elusa, a settlement in the Negev Desert. Although previous studies suggested that the abandonment of municipal dumps in Elusa reflected a social collapse, the authors of this study point out that the dating of the trash remains is inconclusive. According to them, this dating is limited and not representative of the population as a whole, leading them to question the thesis that the abandonment occurred in the 6th century and to propose that this decline could have been gradual and occurred in the 7th century due to wars and regional destabilization from invasions.

Rather than finding evidence of a sudden collapse, the researchers argue that occupation in Elusa and other sites continued during the 6th century and even into the early 7th century. It is only with the Islamic expansion that the abandonment of sites in the Negev begins to become evident, probably due to the fragmentation of trade routes and the reduction in agricultural activity.

The stability of commercial activity in the eastern Mediterranean is another strong point of this research. The authors analyze shipwreck data and conclude that, far from a trade decline in the 6th century, the shipwrecks suggest continuity or even a boom in eastern Mediterranean trade routes up until the end of this century. This commercial flow, they argue, does not reflect an economic crisis caused by plagues or climate changes. Only in the 7th century, coinciding with the Islamic conquests and the end of the conflict with Persia, does trade experience a significant decline.

The findings of this research are also supported by archaeological evidence from Israel and other areas of the eastern Mediterranean, which indicate a growth in population and settlements during the 6th century. This evidence shows a rise in the number of settlements, with a decline only appearing in the 7th century, which is more associated with military conflicts and political changes than natural phenomena.

SOURCES

Olshanetsky, Haggai and Cosijns, Lev. Challenging the Significance of the LALIA and the Justinianic Plague: A Reanalysis of the Archaeological Record Klio, vol. 106, no. 2, 2024, pp. 721-759. doi.org/10.1515/klio-2023-0031

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