A multidisciplinary team of researchers from several German institutions, including the Zuse Institute Berlin and the Free University of Berlin, has developed a mathematical model that promises to revolutionize our understanding of how Roman influence spread in North Africa two millennia ago.

The study offers a fresh and quantitative look at one of the most significant historical phenomena: the expansion of the Roman Empire and the diffusion of its culture across vast territories. The authors, led by Dr. Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad, have focused their research on the territory of present-day Tunisia, which in antiquity was part of the heart of the Roman province of Africa Proconsular.

Romanization, the complex process by which Roman culture, technology, administration, and ways of life spread throughout the Mediterranean and beyond, has been the subject of intense academic debate for generations. However, until now, scholars lacked tools that allowed them to mathematically model the spatiotemporal dynamics of this phenomenon. This is where the new study marks a turning point.

Location of the area of interest (smaller map) and geographical distribution of the selected municipalities and milestones used in this study, together with the Roman road network.
Location of the area of interest (smaller map) and geographical distribution of the selected municipalities and milestones used in this study, together with the Roman road network.Credit: ND Conrad et al.

The research team has developed a sophisticated mathematical model that, based on limited but precise archaeological data, reconstructs the probable sequence of “activation” of the network of Roman roads in North Africa. This road network was the backbone that enabled the expansion of Roman dominion and influence, facilitating the movement of people, ideas, goods, and, of course, legions.

To construct their model, the researchers relied on two main sources of archaeological evidence. On one hand, the physical remains of the extensive network of Roman roads, which are still visible in many parts of the North African landscape today. On the other, stone inscriptions that recorded changes in the administrative status of cities and settlements in the region. These civic promotion decrees, by which a community could ascend in the Roman hierarchy from colony to municipium or civitas, provide valuable temporal reference points.

The model developed by the German team considers Romanization as a process of cultural diffusion, analogous in certain basic aspects to the spread of an epidemic. However, the authors are careful to point out that this analogy is limited and does not imply that cultural expansion is equivalent to an infection. Rather, the model focuses on how transportation infrastructure—the Roman roads—facilitated social interaction and cultural exchange across the territory.

Time evolution of a propagation process realization.
Time evolution of a propagation process realization.Credit: ND Conrad et al.

One of the study’s most notable innovations is its focus on the temporal dimension of Romanization. While the spatial distribution of Roman settlements in North Africa is well known thanks to decades of archaeological research, the temporal sequence in which these places were incorporated into the Roman orbit has been much more difficult to establish. The new model allows for the generation of probabilistic scenarios of how and when different segments of the road network were “activated”, progressively connecting various settlements.

The researchers applied their model to the specific case of ancient Tunisia, calibrating it with the available archaeological data. The result is a fascinating reconstruction of how the network of Roman roads in the region might have developed over the first centuries of our era. This spatiotemporal “skeleton” provides a framework upon which other aspects of Romanization and life in the African province can now be analyzed.

The researchers interpret the observations made using the proposed model in relation to the historical context of Romanization in ancient Tunisia: there seems to be a broad consensus regarding the construction of roads as a hallmark of Romanization. The extent to which this coincided with a substantial reconfiguration of the settlement system itself depended on both prior regional conditions and Roman strategic interests. In our study area, the dominant economic centers in the interior (like Thugga), as well as the trade ports on the eastern coast (like Hadrumetum), retain their pre-Roman significance and appear as connectivity hubs in the sequence of road activation, they explain. These observations provide further support for the view that Roman rulers reinforced the existing settlement hierarchy rather than making significant alterations to it.

Probabilities of temporary activation of road segments. Romanized municipalities are marked in red.
Probabilities of temporary activation of road segments. Romanized municipalities are marked in red.Credit: ND Conrad et al.

The authors highlight the versatility of the model: Although we have applied it to the specific case of Roman Tunisia, our approach is flexible enough to be adapted to other similar archaeological scenarios. We believe it can be a valuable tool for investigating processes of cultural diffusion in other regions and historical periods.

The study is not without limitations, as the authors honestly acknowledge. The scarcity of precise temporal data in the archaeological record remains a challenge, and the model must make certain assumptions to fill the gaps. However, the researchers have conducted extensive sensitivity and stability analyses to validate the robustness of their results.

The publication of this innovative study in an open-access journal like PLOS ONE ensures that its findings and methodology will be available to the entire scientific community. The authors have gone further by making both the code and the data used in their research available to the public through the Zenodo platform. This transparency not only facilitates the reproducibility of the study but also allows other researchers to adapt and expand the model for their own projects.

The work of the German team is framed within a growing trend towards the application of quantitative and computational methods in the humanities and social sciences. This convergence of disciplines, often referred to as “digital humanities,” is opening new avenues for the study of the past. In the case of archaeology, these approaches allow for the extraction of valuable information from fragmented datasets and address questions that previously seemed beyond the reach of systematic research.

SOURCES

Conrad ND, Chemnitz R, Kostré M, Schweigart F, Fless F, Schütte C, et al. (2024) A mathematical perspective on Romanisation: Modelling the Roman road activation process in ancient Tunisia. PLoS ONE 19(9): e0309752. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309752

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